Santa Barbara Real Estate Statistical Update :: YEAR IN REVIEW and 2020 FORECAST

Year in Review South Coast Snapshot…

Single Family Homes Sold +6% 1,305 in 2019 vs. 1,230 in 2018

Single Family Median Sales Price +5% $1,258,000. in 2019 vs. $1,200,000. in 2018

Single Family Average Sales Price +12% $1,949,237. in 2019 vs. $1,742,749. in 2018

Condos Sold +11% 634 in 2019 vs. 570 in 2018

Condo Median Sales Price +3% $702,250. in 2019 vs. $680,000. in 2018

Condo Average Sales Price +0.8% $788,910. in 2019 vs. $782,685. in 2018

There was 3.19 months of supply in December. This is the lowest level of inventory all year. There was 3.77 months in November, 4.66 months in October, 5.05 months in September, 5.30 months in August, 5.30 months in July, 5.13 months in June, 5.05 months in May, 5.12 months in April, 4.63 months in March, 4.16 months in February and 4.18 months in January.

There were 63 price reductions in December. This is also the lowest level of inventory all year. There were 109 price reductions in November, 185 in October, 179 in September, 165 in August, 191 in July, 160 in June, 152 in May, 154 in April, 108 in March, 98 in February, and 140 in January.

New listings and price reductions are likely to increase in the next few weeks.

Average number of days on the market for single family homes is 78 days for December. This has remained fairly stable all year long.

Average number of days on the market for condos is 78 days for December. This is up slightly for December, but has generally remained stable all year.

Of the 176 sales of homes and condos sold in December, 75 or 42.6% were below $1,000,000. This has also been relatively stable all year.

Year over Year Price Report

Santa Barbara Median Price +1.1% $1,240,000. in 2019 vs. $1,227,000. in 2018

Santa Barbara Average Price +2.4% $1,446,655. in 2019 vs. $1,412,686 in 2018

Montecito Median Price +6.4% $2,999,000. in 2019 vs. $2,819,000. in 2018

Montecito Average Price -0.7% $4,102,345. in 2019 vs. $4,131,070. in 2018

Hope Ranch Median Price -24% $3,000,000. in 2019 vs. $3,722,500. in 2018

Hope Ranch Average Price -6% $4,628,800. in 2019 vs. $4,910,737. in 2018

Summerland Median Price -0.7% $1,465,000. in 2019 vs. $1,475,000. in 2018

Summerland Average Price +3.7% $1,872,000. in 2019 vs. $1,805,773 in 2018

Carpinteria Median Price -2.5% $1,042,000. in 2019 vs. $1,068,000. in 2018

Carpinteria Average Price +87.4% $2,733,722. in 2019 vs. $1,458,212. in 2018

Goleta Median Price +7.8% $995,000. in 2019 vs. $923,000. in 2018

Goleta Average Price +11.5% $1,169,183 in 2019 vs. $1,049,032. in 2018

Source: CORT INDATA as of January 15, 2020. This includes both off market and MLS data combined.

2020 Forecast…

The wealth effect is firmly in place and lenders are anxious to lend at historically low rates. Barring geopolitical turmoil, a trade war or natural disaster, I anticipate the Santa Barbara real estate market is on strong footing for 2020.

I expect the market below $2,500,000. to be the strongest segment of the market based on strong demand and low inventory. Well priced homes in desirable locations will sell with multiple offers. Historically low interest rates will help keep this market strong.

I see the market above $10,000,000. to continue its protracted process of working through the excess inventory on the market. The wide selection of homes for sale attracted buyers that gave 2019 the highest sales volume above $10,000,000. on record. There were 23 sales totaling $364,735,903. We had 4 sell with multiple offers and 7 properties sell well below what the Seller paid including 1 bank owned sale. I expect 2020 will bring a similar outcome.

Well priced homes will sell. Homes priced high relative to comparable sales will not sell.

Insurance has been an issue which I expect will continue to be a factor into 2020. It is expensive and difficult to obtain in some cases. Some insurers have left the market and some new ones are coming into the market. Insurance brokers are confident this will cycle through and reach equilibrium where more competition in the market brings lower rates back. Their estimate is 2-4 years.

2020 Predictions by Market Segment…

Oceanfront – The oceanfront market was very strong in 2019. 3 of the 4 highest priced homes sold in 2019 were oceanfront homes. I anticipate 2020 will be another strong year for oceanfront homes.

Montecito – Montecito had a well deserved rebound in 2019. Homes in proximity to the Upper and Lower Village, view homes, beach property and Birnam Wood homes have been of strong interest and I expect that to continue into 2020.

Hope Ranch – Hope Ranch has leveled back toward its historical norm in 2019 after a surge in high end activity in 2018 following the Montecito tragedy. Hope Ranch had 6 sales over $10,000,000. in 2018. There were 3 sales over $10,000,000. in 2019 which is about average over the last 5 years. I anticipate the historical norm will continue in 2020.

Santa Barbara – Buyers are attracted to homes within walking distance to all Santa Barbara has to offer. The Mesa has been especially hot which I anticipate continuing into 2020. Newly built or remodeled view property with privacy, outdoor space & parking are also desirable which I expect to continue into 2020.

Carpinteria – Oceanfront in Carpinteria was the big winner in 2019. I expect that to continue into 2020.

Goleta – New construction was the winner for Goleta in 2019. It is unlikely there will be enough new construction in 2020 to be better than 2019.

Summerland – Summerland had only 18 sales in 2019. I anticipate 2020 to be about the same.